On Syria, It’s China Vote Not Russia that Counts Now!

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While Moscow postures this morning, yesterday I witnessed in public and more private settings evidence that China’s envoys are ready for a deal on Syria Resolution at the UN Security Council. There will not be a vote this week most likely. Moscow has already indicated that it will VETO any resolution that it deems unacceptable, but what does that really mean in context/substance of such draft and ongoing behind scenes dealing? Cornered Bully! Yesterday as the UN Security Council meeting broke-up, the Syrian Ambassador sought out Russia’s and then clung to him like lint in a hot dryer. Don’t think that Russian Vitaly Churkin was particularly keen especially at that moment for the association, but he had little choice. Ambassador Churkin was uncharacteristically reserved/restrained during the UN SC debate. On the other hand , the Syrian regime’s Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari was a lot over the top – a good strategy if you have right on your side but bad idea when your bosses in Damascus are so oppressive/violent. No one, not even their friends are particularly fond of a bully who looks to play victim once cornered. Have come to read diplomatic prospects by body language – part of the message is intended to be an alternative for that which maybe cannot be said in context of diplomacy and the poker game that goes on around the UN Security Council horseshoe table. Ambassador Ja’afari is perhaps exhibiting the game of a desperate man. When I last saw the two Ambassadors together yesterday, Ja’afari looked a lot more comfortable and less desperate in the interaction – it was almost the body language of lover about to be shoved aside for having that winey tone, bad habits and erratic behavior that has just grown old on even the partner who shares the bed. By comparison,in December, the Syrian Ambassador jaunted up the stairs after Russia announced its UN Security Council Resolution and he had met with his Russian counterpart. This January 31, 2012, he clung. On the other hand, the interaction between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and China’s Ambassador was one of flirting with agreement behind the scenes. (Conversation between the two in private chambers at side of UN Security Council was more than coincidental and indicative of a deal). During the public delivery, Ambassador Li Baodong was transparent in being outright opposed to any military intervention but only skeptical of economic sanctions. Think it is likely that the old Yugoslav formula would come out to surface again – economic sanctions varied depending on the Syrian regime’s cooperation with the Arab League and its plan. (Read Article based upon our Twitter feed from UN Security Council Debate – “Whose Neck is on the Line at UN Security Council” -http://diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/whos-neck-is-on-the-line-at-the-un-security-council-by-susan-sacirbey/44330). If China agrees to support or abstain on an Arab League founded Resolution on Syria, Moscow will find it difficult to cast a veto. Read our Article from yesterday morning – “Moscow is Loser in Syria” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/moscow-is-loser-in-syria/44316 Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey - FOLLOW mo @MuhamedSacirbey Facebook-Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect”

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"Voice of the Global Citizen"- Diplomatically Incorrect (diplomaticallyincorrect.org) provide film and written reports on issues reflecting diplomatic discourse and the global citizen. Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey (@MuhamedSacirbey) is former Foreign Minister Ambassador of Bosnia & Herzegovina at the United Nations. "Mo" is also signatory of the Rome Conference/Treaty establishing the International…

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